Vertrauen : Substitut oder Komplement zu formellen Institutionen?

In diesem Beitrag diskutieren wir den in der Literatur heftig umstrittenen Aspekt, ob Vertrauen (Institutionen) nur ein Komplement zu formellen Institutionen (Vertrauen) sein oder diese(s) möglicherweise sogar substituieren kann (können). Wir fassen Vertrauen als spezifische, kooperative Investition auf. Dem Vertrauensgeber geht es dabei um die Verlässlichkeit des Vertrauensnehmers ("reliability"). Der Wert einer Vertrauensbeziehung besteht in nicht weniger als in dem sozialen Überschuss, den sie entstehen lassen kann. Ohne weiteres (Reputationseffekte, Trigger Strategien etc.) kommt diese Beziehung aber nicht zustande. Auch anreizkompatible Verträge können das Dilemma nicht lösen. Dafür aber kann die Zahlung des individuell geregelten Schadensersatzes (perfekte Jurisdiktion) dafür Sorge tragen, die Parteien zur Realisierung der sozial optimalen Lösung zu bewegen. Ein ähnlich hoher sozialer Überschuss kann auch dann erreicht werden, wenn bei imperfekter Jurisdiktion der Vertrauensgeber den größeren Teil dieses Überschusses verantwortet. -- In this paper, we discuss the heavily debated issue whether trust (formal institutions) can only serve as complement(s) or rather as substitute(s) of formal institutions (trust). We take trust as a specific, cooperative investment. The trustor is mainly interested in the reliability of the trustee. The value of a trust relationship amounts and equals to not less than the social surplus which it can generate. Without additional provisions such as trigger strategies, reputation effects etc., however, a trust relationship will not evolve in a one shot game. Not even incentive compatible contracts can solve the dilemma. In a perfect jurisdiction world, a social optimal solution is feasible in the case where both parties agree on "liquidated damages". A comparable social surplus can also be achieved in a non-perfect jurisdiction world. A necessary condition is that the trustor is responsible for the larger part of the social surplus.Vertrauen,Ökonomische Theorie des Rechts,Neue Institutionenökonomik

A new focus on risk reduction: An ad hoc decision support system for humanitarian relief logistics

Particularly in the early phases of a disaster, logistical decisions are needed to be made quickly and under high pressure for the decision‐makers, knowing that their decisions may have direct consequences on the affected society and all future decisions. Proactive risk reduction may be helpful in providing decision‐makers with optimal strategies in advance. However, disasters are characterized by severe uncertainty and complexity, limited knowledge about the causes of the disaster, and continuous change of the situation in unpredicted ways. Following these assumptions, we believe that adequate proactive risk reduction measures are not practical. We propose strengthening the focus on ad hoc decision support to capture information in almost real time and to process information efficiently to reveal uncertainties that had not been previously predicted. Therefore, we present an ad hoc decision support system that uses scenario techniques to capture uncertainty by future developments of a situation and an optimization model to compute promising decision options. By combining these aspects in a dynamic manner and integrating new information continuously, it can be ensured that a decision is always based on the best currently available and processed information. And finally, to identify a robust decision option that is provided as a decision recommendation to the decision‐makers, methods of multi‐attribute decision making (MADM) are applied. Our approach is illustrated for a facility location decision problem arising in humanitarian relief logistics where the objective is to identify robust locations for tent hospitals to serve injured people in the immediate aftermath of the Haiti Earthquake 2010.Frank Schätter, Marcus Wiens and Frank Schultman

Risk Differentiation for Critical Infrastructure Protection

Critical infrastructures, e.g., electricity transmission / distribution, public transport and health care systems, need to be protected against various internal and external risks which can be safety- and / or security-relevant. Predominately probability-based methods are hitherto used for analysing the whole spectrum of risks. We think this is an insufficient approach, presumably leading to inefficient resource allocation and biased risk perception, as it does not consider the different natures of risk. This paper looks at the key difference between safety- and security-relevant risks, highlights resulting implications for critical infrastructure protection and describes a possible approach for handling these different types of risk

Use of digital healthcare solutions for care delivery during a pandemic-chances and (cyber) risks referring to the example of the COVID-19 pandemic

During pandemics, regular service provisioning processes in medical care may be disrupted. Digital health promises many opportunities for service provisioning during a pandemic. However, a broad penetration of medical processes with information technology also has drawbacks. Within this work, the authors use the COVID-19 pandemic to analyze the chances and the risks that may come with using digital health solutions for medical care during a pandemic. Therefore, a multi-methods approach is used. First we use a systematic literature review for reviewing the state of the art of digital health applications in healthcare. Furthermore, the usage of digital health applications is mapped to the different processes in care delivery. Here we provide an exemplary process model of oncological care delivery. The analysis shows that including digital health solutions may be helpful for care delivery in most processes of medical care provisioning. However, research on digital health solutions focuses strongly on some few processes and specific disciplines while other processes and medical disciplines are underrepresented in literature. Last, we highlight the necessity of a comprehensive risk-related debate around the effects that come with the use of digital healthcare solutions

Motivation-based Attacker Modelling for Cyber Risk Management: A Quantitative Content Analysis and a Natural Experiment

Cyber-attacks have a tremendous impact on worldwide economic performance. Hence, it is vitally important to implement effective risk management for different cyber-attacks, which calls for profound attacker models. However, cyber risk modelling based on attacker models seems to be restricted to overly simplified models. This hinders the understanding of cyber risks and represents a heavy burden for efficient cyber risk management. This work aims to forward scientific research in this field by employing a multi-method approach based on a quantitative content analysis of scientific literature and a natural experiment. Our work gives evidence for the oversimplified modelling of attacker motivational patterns. The quantitative content analysis gives evidence for a broad and established misunderstanding of attackers as being illicitly malicious. The results of the natural ex- periment substantiate the findings of the content analysis. We thereby contribute to the improvement of attacker modelling, which can be considered a necessary prerequisite for effective cyber risk management

Optimal Evacuation-Decisions Facing the Trade-Off between Early- Warning Precision, Evacuation-Cost and Trust – the Warning Compliance Model (WCM)

In this article, we analyze the phenomenon of flood evacuation compliance from a both decision-theoretic and game-theoretic perspective presenting the Warning Compliance Model (WCM). This discrete decision model incorporates a Bayesian information system, which formalizes the statistical effects of a warning forecast based on the harmonious structure of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The game-theoretical part of the model incorporates the evacuation order decision of a local government and people’s compliance regarding their evacuation-decisions. The strengths of this novel approach lie in the joint consideration of probabilistic and communicative risk aspects of a dynamic setting, in the simultaneous consideration of escalation and de-escalation phases and of two differently exposed risk groups, which requires differential risk communication. For each scenario, we derive the explicit and generic solution of the model, which makes it possible to identify the scope for warning compliance and its effects independent from the parameter constellation. Applying empirical data from flood and risk studies yields plausible results for the escalation-scenario of the model and reveal the limits of compliance if people face a Black Swan flood event

Economic Risk Potential of Infrastructure Failure Considering In-Land Waterways

Purpose—Unreliable transport infrastructure can cause negative externalities for industries. In this article, we analyze how the private sector is affected by infrastructure failure of public transport infrastructure, using waterways as an example. Methodology—To investigate the affectedness of riparian industries, we chose two complementary parallel approaches: A proximity analysis via GIS, and a concluding survey among the identified waterway-dependent industries. An exemplary application is validated by stakeholders. Findings—We identify a predominance of location preferences in dependence on waterways for mining, chemical, and metal industries. Their risk tolerance exhibits potentially severe impacts on industries if reliable transport cannot be ensured via waterways, as our paper provides essential insights into the relationship between infrastructure failure and company decisions. Most importantly, we reveal that a lack of alternatives due to missing capacities of other transport modes causes realistic threats to business locations. Practical implications—include that a regional focus is crucial for the empirical risk assessment of transport infrastructure. Hence, the data collection should relate to the regional focus groups, particularly the directly affected industries. In addition, infrastructure maintenance should integrate a risk focus and consider the short and long-run impacts on industries